Sorry folks...

I was in Bryant-Denny for Saturday's Alabama-Arkansas game. I heard the crowd, felt the energy, and saw Alabama's apparent dominance of every aspect of the game. I was happy with Alabama's performance, and the score of the game. The national championship team I watched was not in Tuscaloosa, however, it was on CBS that evening, in Morgantown, West Virginia, soundly defeating the Mountaineers. Ater watching Alabama, LSU, Oklahoma, and Boise State, it is clear to me that Alabama is fourth out of four. In short, Alabama is not capable of doing what the other teams do.

Yes, Alabama won in dramatic fashion. There were big plays, wild plays, and atypical plays in terms of Alabama's offensive style. But for all the excitement and defensive dominance, Alabama national-level deficiencies were readily apparent. When it came time to line up, helmet-to-helmet, and punch the ball into the endzone, Alabama couldn't gain 3 inches in 3 running plays and settled for a field goal. Oklahoma, LSU, and Boise State would have scored a touchdown. Alabama averaged a little over 31 yards per punt. LSU's average against West Virginia was 47 yards, and they downed 4 punts inside the West Virginia 10 yard line. While Alabama had a lot of quarterback hurries and some good hits against Arkansas, they mostly occurred after the ball was thrown. In fact, Alabama is near the bottom of the league in sacks. Arkansas even had three new starters on the offensive line, and still held Alabama's rushers largely at bay. Oklahoma sacked FSU's quarterbacks five times.

Despite the notoriety of Alabama's secondary, teams have had early-game success in longer yardage pass plays. Penn State completed several passes over 15 yards, as did Arkansas. There were missed assignments, as in the case of the long touchdown that was negated by a holding call, and missed tackles, as in the case of Arkansas's first touchdown. There was also the long screen play to Trent Richardson that miraculously missed the outstretched, but wrongly positioned, arms of a savvy Arkansas defensive end and narrowly escaped being intercepted. The outstretched arms of defensive ends at Florida and LSU will be positioned correctly. If one looks closely, Alabama's offensive line is not performing very well at all. AJ McCarron was pressured by Arkansas' rush at least 6 times, and sacked on two others. Successful running lanes and gaps are produced far more by the individual skill of Richardson and Lacey than the offensive line.

I'm not saying they are a bad team. They are in the top four teams in the country, but they are a clear fourth out of that group. The rapidly increasing difficulty of Alabama's opponents will more openly expose the weaknesses that the previous team have only identified. The 2011 Alabama team will not go undefeated. They will not win the SEC West, or even represent them at the SEC Championship game. Oklahoma is deep with upperclass experience. Boise State has senior talent and a favorable schedule. LSU is eerily reminiscent of the 1992 and 2009 Alabama teams, with a workmanlike offense, mediocre, game-managing quarterback, and all-world defense. While Alabama's offense and defense seem unstoppable against weaker competition, they will not stand up to the challenges of the other conference elites. I predict losses to both Florida and LSU this season.

If you're an Alabama fan and want to make reservations for New Orleans, you're going to have to wait for Mardis Gras because Alabama won't be there this bowl season. I recommend looking at a city in Florida shortly before, or after, New Year's Day. I hate LSU more than the Taliban, and Les Miles more than Satan, so it's hard to admit this. It's ironic that the BCS Championship is in Louisiana, the year LSU wins the national championship.