What being "back" really means in college football....

Alabama fans are as excited as ever about the prospects of Alabama's return to the national college football stage. I recently read two newspaper bylines that describe the source of the excitement; "Alabama solidified its return to prominence" and "The Crimson Tide is rolling once again." The problem is, these bylines were written on 1 October (SI.com) and 23 October (Washington Post), 2005. It was a time of success and being unbeaten. It was a time of media coverage and the eagerness of garnering more and more first place votes in the weekly polls. It was a time of fan giddiness and boasting, and of pictures of Alabama players on Sports Illustrated covers declaring "Bama's back." Then came 12 and 19 November 2005.

On 12 November 2005, in a charged and raucous climate in normally sedate Bryant-Denny Stadium, with impressive flyovers and coin tosses, Alabama lost to LSU for the third year in a row. On 19 November, Alabama lost to Auburn in similar fashion. And while Alabama won it's bowl game, it was the beginning of the end. In 2006, Alabama went 6-7, losing to Tennessee for the 9th time in 12 seasons, Mississippi State, and LSU and Auburn for the 4th time in a row.

In 2007, fans were once again rejuvenated at the prospect and potential of hiring Nick Saban, who would undoubtedly bring new championships to Tuscaloosa. Alabama was "back" once again. Then came a season that saw one of the most embarrassing home losses in Alabama football history (LA Monroe), losses in the last four regular season games, including the 5th in a row to LSU and Auburn, and a 7-6 record.

In 2008, Alabama started 12-0, and was "back" yet again. Alabama finally beat Auburn and LSU, and fans were poised for excitement and a possible national championship run. Then, Alabama lost the only game that really mattered in terms of a national championship, and rather embarrassingly in a meaningless non-BCS Sugar Bowl matchup to an upstart Utah team.

The point of all this...NO TEAM IS BACK until they hoist a championship trophy above their heads after beating ALL their opponents. Fans that embrace the idea of being "back" in week 5 of a given season, after playing one SEC game, and engage in premature boasting and bantering with opposing school's fans with similar records in September, are fanciful fools. Fans that exclaim "Alabama's back" when there is so much football to be played and questions about the team to be answered, with the spectre of injury always around the corner, do not respect the realities of college football. Perhaps those that proclaim that "Alabama is back" should be responsible for printing corrections or retractions when the season proves otherwise.

The other Saban effect....

Yes, Coach Saban is winning more games. The Alabama fanbase is more confident (sometimes overconfident - see post below), and interest/passion for the program is as high as it has been since the days of Bear Bryant. But there is another effect that is much less obvious or tangible that is having as much, or more so, impact on Alabama's football program. It's renewed national respect and prestige.

In the last three weeks alone, I have read multiple articles from national media sources in which Alabama football is referred to as an "elite" or "premiere" college football program. Alabama is again listed in the same breath with USC, Texas, Notre Dame, Ohio State, etc. Although Alabama is, and has always been so, these words were deep in the grammatical abyss of adjectives and descriptors during the Franchione, Shula, probation years. Coach Saban has overcome his pre-hire credibility gaffes and returned Alabama to it's natural position as a permanent member of college football's national security council.

Out-of-state players, who until as little as 3 years ago wouldn't even mention Alabama as a possible destination, are saying they will give Alabama "a look." Top players are increasingly attending Alabama camps. More coaches are attending Alabama's coaching clinics. Alabama is slowly getting back into the NFL draft business. All the program's elements taken for granted during Bear's reign are returning for the same reason they existed then - an extraordinary head coach.

For 4-5 years, Alabama was easy fodder for sports radio talking heads and those in the written media with anti-Alabama agendas. Alabama was mired in mediocrity with no real possibility of climbing out. Coach Saban has changed all that. Now, even those that dislike Alabama or Coach Saban respect what he has done and show deference to Alabama's chances in almost every game. A limited few even chose Alabama to beat Florida in the 2009 SEC Championship game, the thought of which was absurd just 1-2 seasons ago. Joe Rose, former Dolphin player and most profound Saban-hater, has conceded on his Miami sports radio talk show that he is a great college coach. Even the reviled ESPN, who has actually marketed Alabama more than most teams with coverages of practice, player profiles, interviews with Coach Saban, and game broadcasts, was forced to accept that Alabama is a better venue for Gameday coverage of the spring game than their beloved Florida.

All of this is because of Coach Saban. Sure, players like Andre (although I mention his name with the same contempt that I would Benedict Arnold), Terrance Cody, John Parker Wilson, and Julio Jones have been a big part of this impact. This truth remains - those players would NOT have been the same under Shula or any of his predecessors. Coach Saban has singlehandedly brought Alabama back to the forefront of college football. He has singlehandedly restored Alabama's national respect and prestige. He is creating a new tradition and record that is attracting those out-of-state players that are not aware of Alabama's former glory days. His efforts will impact everything from BCS voting to effective relationships with national high school coaches - elements of a successful college football program that are every bit as important as winning. As long as Coach Saban is at Alabama, this less-recognized effect of his presence will continue and there is no limit to what he can accomplish.

Here we go again....

It's inevitable.  There's nothing any of us realists can do about it except vomit.  Every single spring, college football fans forget every glaring and recurring issue with their team that was a major concern just 2-3 months ago, and make bold predictions about wins, championships, and glory.  For Alabama, gaping holes in the offensive line, a fatal lack of depth at key positions, breaking in Greg McElroy (there is NO QB competition), a failure to run effectively against big, strong, quick SEC defenses, and end-of-game lapses against Florida and pitiful execution against Utah are ancient history.  Even though the same players that were the problem a mere 3 months ago are the same players that will start in August, pictures of freshmen in tight under armor shirts, YouTube videos of "beasts" pancaking 120-pound high schoolers, and baseless stories about recruit impact from shameful recruiting services fuel an annual rammer jammer frenzy that ignores reality.

It doesn't matter what anyone says about DJ Fluker.  It doesn't matter what his nickname is.  It doesn't matter how much he eats or how big his shoes are.  He is NOT going to immediately replace an all-conference NFL first-rounder in his freshman season in the SEC.  The offensive line we all saw against Utah is the one we are all going to see against VA Tech.  While he may contribute and make some impact, it will not be enough to solve the blocking/protection issues in 2008.  This is a potential problem that could be a chronic and systemic issue all season and significantly impact the team's success.  The 2009 recruits are IRRELEVANT.      

It doesn't matter that Julio is a sophomore and has a year of the offense under his belt.  His freshman accolades don't matter.  Marquis Maze's 3-5 catches this season don't matter and prove nothing.  It is another year of basic 2-receiver routes, with regular double teams.  Alabama doesn't scheme receivers, and never will.  It boils down to superior route running and the ability of the QB to deliver the ball.  Julio is not the best route runner, and no one knows how McElroy will perform.  This is another area of potential mediocrity that could seriously compromise the season.  The 2009 recruits are IRRELEVANT.    

No matter what anyone says, freshmen are no match for seasoned, experienced players.  Being a "beast" in a tight under armor shirt against 120-pound linemen at Briarwood Christian compared to facing an LSU or Florida defensive end, or a Tennessee defensive back is like comparing the Sun and Moon.  One cannot simply plug a recruit into a position because of some published 40-yard dash speed or a ridiculous YouTube video of a high school game.  Player development takes time.  During this development, these players make mistakes.  Many times, these mistakes result in opponent touchdowns, long runs, or missed coverage assignments.  The 2009 season is no different.  The 2009 recruits are IRRELEVANT.     

If you haven't figured it out, the 2009 recruits are irrelevant for expectations/predictions of success in 2009. They may have an impact.  They may have a significant impact.  It is not sufficient to base win predictions and expectations on under ANY circumstances.  The team we saw last December is the team we'll see in August.  February 4, 2009 didn't change anything for 2009.  What it did was ensure that future Alabama teams will be deeper and more talented than previous Alabama teams and other teams nationally.  It means that the future is bright at Alabama.  The same issues that plagued the 2008 team continue in 2009 until further notice.

Being positive, giving unproven players the benefit of the doubt, seeing the glass half-full, and being hopeful as spring emerges is ridiculous folly.  Understanding, conceding, and embracing weaknesses is a much stronger basis for expectations.  A realistic fan acknowledges that Alabama's depth issues continue, the starting roster is dominated by young players, the offensive line is a rebuilt project, and McElroy is unproven (the Auburn pass is COMPLETELY, TOTALLY, AND ABSOLUTELY IRRELEVANT for evaluating his potential).  The prudent fan will understand these limitations and make predictions within them instead of the annual "Alabama is going undefeated" nonsense.  I just don't understand why we have to do this every single year.